Time has flown by, as usual, and Alexis hasn’t been idle, as usual. Since our last conversation he’s been working on an ebook that will be released soon. But I should give you a bit more context. Alexis has been writing for a long time about poker, chess, or other games, like Memoir 44 (© Days of Wonder 2011) (a wargame-type strategy game). Not content with writing, he also publishes: Praxeo, his publishing house is well-known in its field, I encourage you to visit his blog. When we met during one of my assignments, discussions about product owner strategy and tactics revived a long buried article he had never finished…until now. The intersection of our two worlds: agile product management, organizational management, and the strategy and tactics of great champions (in games, battlefields, etc.) is not new (lots of quotes from Sun Tzu everywhere), but Alexis’s approach is original. (Alexis whispers to me: Sun Tzu is a GO player, Clausewitz a chess player, their approach is therefore opposite, let’s go beyond).

ebook

So here we are 3 months later. Excited by our debates, Alexis dove back into this unfinished article which he transformed into an ebook (so far 80 fascinating pages, probably more in the end since I have a still incomplete version). (I will naturally tweet as soon as it’s officially released). This ebook is still very game-oriented (go, chess, mille bornes (!), etc.) but we already find other avenues: business management, political governance, etc.

In the previous article Alexis proposed to bring his analyses back to two systems: the scoring system and the sudden death system. Today I’d like to recall these elements by trying to find evocative examples and some scenarios; then discuss an element that was part of our discussions (and which is addressed more precisely and more effectively in this ebook): the inflection point.

Examples of scoring systems

First scenario: solid cash flow and market domination.

If I project Alexis’s proposals into the business world, into my agile world, a product owner with good visibility (meaning healthy cash flow, no “emergency”) is like a GO player, playing with a scoring system (the one with the most points wins, there’s no “golden goal”). From a position of strength, they consolidate their grip on the market. For example, Microsoft in the late 90s, behind on the web but in a dominant position with no financial risk, catches up with IE while Netscape is eating their lunch: they consolidate.

Second scenario: solid cash flow but no market domination.

Google’s product owner in the mid-2000s also has no cash flow problems but conversely is not dominant in the market (not yet…). We’re still in a scoring system but we’re behind, risks must be taken: we try numerous avenues (google wave, gmail, google desktop, google maps, google answers, etc.), some will work, others won’t. But risk-taking is essential, and enabled by the scoring system/cash flow (no sudden death in sight).

Examples of sudden death systems

You’re in sudden death system when your cash flow doesn’t allow you to have good visibility. Bankruptcy is

potentially at the end of the road.

Third scenario: at-risk cash flow (possible bankruptcy), and market domination.

Third scenario then, you’re dominant in the market but your cash flow is not assured (we’re playing chess, the king can be taken and we must prevent the king’s capture at all costs). If you’re dominant without financial security, you must remain dominant. Continue to lead the race. Unlike the scoring system, you must therefore continue to take risks, continue to hold the market, maintain your lead. Think about those startups that create new sectors (and thus take a dominant position in them) without having financial security. They must continue to take risks, continue to hold the market until their cash flow allows them to switch to a scoring system. Facebook? (has probably since moved to a scoring system…), Linkedin (has moved to a scoring system as evidenced by its new “twitter” interface, dominant and with cash flow, now Linkedin consolidates), “Les copains d’avant” (failed to move to a scoring system and got overtaken, no longer dominant in the market), Realplayer? Flash? which is dominant in the market but doesn’t necessarily have associated cash flow should be attacking much more…unless we’ve already switched to the last scenario.

Fourth scenario: at-risk cash flow (possible bankruptcy) and no market domination.

In this last scenario, our company has no financial security (the king can be taken), and is not dominant in

the market: it must consolidate, it must survive. We must first ensure the king’s survival before considering taking risks. I mentioned Linkedin, Viadeo is its counterpart: it’s not dominant in the market and had to/must secure cash reserves to move to a scoring system before going back on the offensive against Linkedin.

Imagine you’re Viadeo’s product owner (all this is just supposition, I don’t know this company) you first consolidated your assets to allow your company to solidify its cash flow, then you launched an assault on the leader (Linkedin) through innovation/risk-taking. If that failed, it probably damaged your finances and you may need to consolidate your assets again. If it succeeded, you’ve become the leader and you must consolidate what’s missing from your feature portfolio (observe the non-dominants and their risk-taking that succeeds).

The inflection point

As you’ve noted, we understand that an entity moves from one system to another. But even in a short cycle, and in your projects, this switch occurs. It’s through mille bornes and a dialogue between children that Alexis will introduce a notion well known or at least often felt by product owners: the inflection point. He emphasizes the intuitive side of this inflection (and what’s more intuitive than children?), I also observe this intuition in product owners.

If I summarize Alexis’s demonstration, during a game of mille bornes you’re in a scoring system. So if dominant you consolidate (put down mileage cards), if non-dominant you take risks (attack: cards that slow down, agreements between players, betrayals, etc., anything that unsettles, changes the course of the game, allows positions to change -because you’re not dominant-). At the beginning everyone is equal and feels dominant, everyone consolidates by placing points. It’s when one of the participants pulls clearly ahead that this strategy is called into question. Better to slow them down then: scoring system while being non-dominant: risk-taking (as mentioned above, anything that questions the leader’s domination). But if it becomes urgent (temporal notion!), we’ve probably switched to a sudden death system. We’ve passed the inflection point. If we don’t stop the leader now, we’ll lose. And so now we consolidate. We must not die. Alliances become obvious: everyone against one. Priorities too: everything to stop the dominant player. There’s no/less risk-taking: the answers are obvious, we must consolidate.

Naturally you’ve experienced this if you’re a product owner. At the beginning of the project/product we take risks, we take positions, we test avenues, features, innovative technologies/approaches. But comes the moment of the release (temporal notion!) when we must consolidate. We’ve moved from a scoring system to a sudden death system. You’re not dominant in a market: you must take risks, innovate, try, surprise, etc. But when release time approaches, you must consolidate your gains. You must “sacrifice the weak section” to use an expression Alexis is fond of, solidify, consolidate, even if it means abandoning, cutting. Risk of sudden death, we’re not in a position of strength, we consolidate.

Product owners, you must ask yourself: are you in a scoring or sudden death system? Are you dominant in your market? (your market can be defined in many ways, we can imagine the company’s internal market). So what’s the right strategy to use? When should the inflection point occur?

In the next article (the return of the product owner) on this theme I’ll discuss “Pascal’s calculation” as Alexis described it to

me (and perhaps the Berserker mode of startups, a hilarious discussion between us!). But naturally I encourage you to

rush to get the ebook I mentioned as soon as it’s available (watch Praxeo on this subject).

The previous article was: Introduction to product owner strategy